There are corners of the planet that, seen on a map, seem insignificant, but in practice are truly authentic. nerve centers of the world systemThe Strait of Hormuz is the best example: a relatively small waterway whose importance far exceeds its physical size. From the outside, it may seem like just another shipping lane, but what happens in its waters has a direct impact on the finances, energy, and economic stability of half the world.
In this strip that separates Iran and Oman, they cross geography, history, oil, gas and major military powersWhen news reports mention tensions in the Strait of Hormuz, markets tremble, crude oil prices soar, and shipping companies rethink their routes. Understanding why this strait is crucial is not just a geopolitical curiosity: it helps us grasp the inner workings of the global energy economy and why any spark in the area can drive up the price of gasoline, electricity, or food thousands of kilometers away.
Location and geographical characteristics of the Strait of Hormuz
The Strait of Hormuz is a maritime passage located between the Persian Gulf and the Gulf of Omanwhich in turn connects with the Indian OceanIt acts as a gateway for the entire Persian Gulf basin to the rest of the world, making it a mandatory transit point for most of the region's energy exports.
From a cartographic point of view, the strait is located approximately between the 26° and 27° north latitude and 56° and 57° east longitudeTo the north, it borders the Iranian province of Hormozgan; to the south, it is delimited by the Musandam Peninsula, an exclave of the Sultanate of Oman separated from the rest of the country by the United Arab Emirates. In other words, we are dealing with an area where several state actors with highly sensitive interests overlap.
In terms of dimensions, the strait is about 190 kilometers and a width that ranges from about 56 kilometers at its widest point to around 33 kilometers at its narrowest pointIt may seem like there is plenty of space, but the operational reality is very different: the area that is actually navigable for large ships is much smaller.
Traffic is organized through a Traffic Separation Scheme (TSS) Approved by the International Maritime Organization, this system establishes two navigation lanes, each approximately 2 nautical miles wide, separated by a 2-nautical-mile safety zone. In practice, large oil tankers and gas carriers move within an effective corridor of about 6 nautical miles in an already narrow passage.
Depth is another key factor: the Strait of Hormuz has sufficient draft to allow the passage of very large tankers (VLCCs) and liquefied natural gas carriers without permanent structural limitations. This combination of adequate depth and limited space generates enormous traffic density in a highly compressed corridor, multiplying the strategic relevance of the location.
A historic corridor contested by empires and powers
Long before he became the great 21st century energy bottleneckThe Strait of Hormuz was already a coveted passage. Since antiquity, the waters connecting the Persian Gulf to the Indian Ocean have been the scene of disputes between Persians, Romans, Ottomans, Portuguese, and British, among others. It wasn't just about controlling regional trade, but about dominating a route that allowed access to distant markets and resources.
With the rise of large deposits of oil and gas in the Persian Gulf Throughout the 20th century, its role skyrocketed. The Gulf region, comprising the coasts of Iran, Iraq, Kuwait, Saudi Arabia, Bahrain, Qatar, the United Arab Emirates, and Oman, holds some of the planet's largest energy resources. The strait became, quite literally, the gateway for these resources to Asia, Europe, and the Americas.
The presence of extra-regional powers became constant. The United Kingdom first, and later, United States with its Fifth FleetThey strengthened their military presence under the pretext of guaranteeing freedom of navigation and the security of the global energy supply. At the same time, Iran consolidated its role as an indispensable actor thanks to its control of the northern shore.
Already in the 1980s, during the Iran-Iraq WarThe strait became embroiled in the so-called "tanker war." Both countries attacked third-party ships to exert economic pressure on their rival. The United States ended up escorting Kuwaiti tankers in the largest naval convoy operation since World War II, demonstrating the extent to which neither power was willing to see that passage closed.
This historical dimension explains why any regional conflict—whether between Iran and its neighbors, or between Iran and external powers such as the United States or Israel—almost automatically has repercussions in the Strait of HormuzThe history of the strait is, to a large extent, the history of the struggle to control the flow of the planet's most sensitive resources.
Hormuz as a global energy artery: oil and gas
If there's one fact that helps explain why everyone looks to Hormuz, it's this: approximately [number of] people travel through its waters. between one-fifth and one-quarter of the world's maritime oil tradeIn 2025, estimates from organizations such as the EIA and the IEA place the flow at around 19,8-20 million barrels per day (mb/d) of crude oil and refined products.
Of that volume, approximately 15 mb/d corresponds to crude oil and condensatesWhile approximately 5 million barrels per day (mb/d) are refined products (gasoline, diesel, fuel oil, etc.). Saudi Arabia, Iraq, the United Arab Emirates, Iran, Kuwait, and Qatar account for the majority of these shipments. In practice, almost all of the exportable production from the Persian Gulf Basin depends on this step.
Put another way, more than 830.000 barrels per hourA hypothetical 10% reduction in traffic would mean removing approximately 2 million barrels per day (mb/d) from the market, a figure comparable to the entire production of several medium-sized exporting countries. This volume is so large that any prolonged disruption is immediately reflected in international prices.
But oil isn't the only thing that flows through there. The Strait of Hormuz also channels around the 19-20% of the world's liquefied natural gas (LNG) trade, especially from Qatar, one of the world's largest exporters, and the United Arab Emirates. More than 90% of Qatari LNG is required to leave through this corridor.
The LNG market has less logistical elasticity than the crude oil market: the LNG carrier fleet is specialized, liquefaction and regasification infrastructure is highly localized, and contracts are typically long-term. This means that It is much more difficult to relocate those volumes if the strait becomes blocked or if risk premiums skyrocket.
Maritime traffic density and operational risks
Approximately [number missing] people cross the Strait of Hormuz each month. 3.000 ships of all typesThis translates to over a hundred daily transits of VLCC and Suezmax tankers, gas carriers, container ships, and other cargo vessels. All of this is contained within an effective navigable corridor approximately 6 nautical miles wide.
That combination of colossal volume and limited space creates a Exceptional operational densityThe system works as long as the flow is continuous and relatively predictable. But if inspections increase, additional security measures are imposed, or isolated incidents occur, the effective capacity is reduced, creating a kind of "maritime traffic jam."
Organizations such as UNCTAD consider Hormuz not only a sensitive point for energy but also a critical link in global trade networksAny sustained disruption may force the reconfiguration of itineraries, increase freight costs, modify port calls, and alter the availability of ships on other routes around the world.
This pattern of vulnerability has been observed in other strategic waterways. The Strait of Malacca, the Suez Canal, and the Panama Canal also function as chokepoints, but none have such a high concentration of hydrocarbons. A comparison of the volume of oil passing through each route is revealing.
While in Malacca they pass around 16 mb/d of crude oil and productsThe Suez Canal and the SUMED pipeline together handle about 8,8-9 million barrels per day (mb/d). Bab el-Mandeb channels about 6-6,5 mb/d. Far below these are passages such as the Danish and Turkish straits, or the Panama Canal. Hormuz is at the top, with about 20 mb/d, that is, more oil than any other corridor on the planet.
Comparison with other strategic bottlenecks
To get an idea of the scale, one only needs to recall some recent events in other key locations. When in 2021 the mega-container Ever Given ran aground in the Suez Canal For six days, global trade was partially paralyzed, with up to $10.000 billion worth of goods affected daily. And this crisis wasn't a direct military conflict, but an operational accident.
In the case of Panama CanalWater scarcity restrictions linked to climate change have reduced the number of ships authorized to cross, causing delays and increasing transit times and shipping costs. These are examples of how a single step can disrupt global supply chains.
The Strait of Hormuz shares the character of a “chokepoint”, but with a fundamental difference: here Yes, geostrategic interests and military rivalries overlap.We are not just facing a technical or environmental problem; we are talking about a scenario where regional powers (Iran, Saudi Arabia, Emirates, Qatar) and global powers (United States, China, to a lesser extent Russia and the European Union) interact.
To make matters worse, alternative routes for Gulf oil are very limited. There are a few pipelines that allow partially bypass HormuzBut their combined capacity is nowhere near the almost 20 mb/d that normally cross the strait.
Saudi Arabia operates the East-West pipeline (Petroline), which connects Abqaiq with Yanbu on the Red Sea and has recently expanded its capacity to about 7 million barrels per day (mb/d), although in practice only part of that capacity would be available in an emergency. The United Arab Emirates has the Abu Dhabi Crude Oil Pipeline (ADCOP), which links onshore fields with the Fujairah terminal in the Gulf of Oman, with a capacity of 1,8 mb/d.
Iran, for its part, has developed the oil pipeline Goreh-Jask and the Jask terminal as a strategic project to export crude oil to the Omani sea without passing through the Strait of Hormuz. However, despite a test shipment in late 2024, the infrastructure remains de facto inoperative, and therefore is not a viable alternative today. Even with maximum utilization of the Saudi and Emirati pipelines, a gap of more than 10 million barrels per day would remain without a viable route if the Strait of Hormuz were to close completely.
Pure geopolitics: Iran, the United States, and the global chessboard
The geography of the Strait of Hormuz is intimately linked to its political and military dimensionThe northern part of the strait belongs to Iran, while the southern coast is controlled by Oman and the United Arab Emirates. United Nations regulations allow states to exercise sovereignty up to 12 nautical miles from their coastline, so in the narrowest section, the shipping lanes lie entirely within Iranian and Omani territorial waters.
This legal framework gives Tehran a position of strength. On several occasions, Iran has threatened to block or disrupt traffic in response to economic sanctions, military operations, or diplomatic pressure from the United States and its allies. Even without fully implementing the shutdown, simply raising the possibility usually triggers immediate increases in the price of oil.
The United States, for its part, maintains a significant naval presence in the area—especially through the Fifth Fleet— with the stated objective of guaranteeing freedom of navigation and deterring any attempt at blockade. During the Iran-Iraq War in the 1980s, Washington already demonstrated its willingness to escort convoys and respond militarily to attacks against commercial vessels.
In the most recent situation, marked by increased tension between United States, Israel and IranThe strait has once again become a focal point. Strikes against Iranian nuclear facilities, cross-military actions, and reciprocal threats have brought the Strait of Hormuz back to the forefront of the headlines and, more importantly, to the screens of energy market operators.
China enters this equation as a major energy importer. It is the main buyer of Iranian crude and one of the largest destinations for oil and LNG crossing the strait. Hence, Washington has openly called on Beijing to Use your influence to prevent a shutdownThey argued that a blockade would be "economic suicide" for those most dependent on that flow, starting with Iran itself and its main Asian customers.
How might Iran try to close the Strait of Hormuz
One of the recurring questions in any crisis in the region is how, exactly, Could Iran block the strait?Experts point to several tactical options. One of the most effective would be the use of naval mines laid from speedboats or submarines in the navigation lanes, forcing traffic to stop until the area is cleared.
The regular Iranian navy, along with naval units from Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC)It also possesses fast patrol boats armed with anti-ship missiles, surface vessels, semi-submersible craft, and submarines capable of harassing oil tankers and military vessels. Direct attacks or credible threats would be enough to deter many shipping companies from entering the area.
However, these same means would have their counterpart: Large Iranian warships would be visible targets For US and allied aircraft and missiles, the route would be a formidable one, while fast boats and smaller vessels would face technologically far superior forces. Most analysts agree that Iran could significantly disrupt traffic for a time, but also that an international coalition would have the capacity to restore passage, possibly at the cost of a considerable military escalation.
In fact, in the late 80s, at the height of the "tanker war," the United States already took action to keep the corridor open, re-flagging Kuwaiti ships and organizing armed convoys. This experience fuels the perception that A total and prolonged shutdown is unsustainable. for Iran, both militarily and economically, considering that the country itself needs to export crude oil and energy products to finance itself.
That is why many experts — and also voices within the region itself — argue that Tehran has “more to lose than to gain” in a prolonged blockade, since it risks alienating its producing neighbors and its main buyer, China, as well as provoking an international military response that is difficult to control.
Global impact of a closure or disruption of the strait
When the scenario of a effective closure of the Strait of HormuzThe consensus among analysts is that we would be facing an unprecedented disruption to the energy market in modern times. The comparison with the war in Ukraine is very illustrative: the Russian invasion put approximately 3 million barrels per day (mb/d) of crude oil at risk, which drove the price of a barrel up by more than 50% in just a few weeks. A disruption in the Strait of Hormuz could affect up to 20 mb/d.
In a recent conflict, the blockade of the strait led to the Brent crude will surpass $100 per barrelAnd if US crude oil were to reach similar levels, it would trigger energy inflation and put upward pressure on the prices of transportation, electricity, and, consequently, numerous consumer goods. With 20 million barrels per day at stake, the risk of a sustained price surge is clear.
The effects would not be uniform. Countries like China, India, Japan, or South Korea —which depend heavily on crude oil arriving from the Gulf via the Strait of Hormuz— would be hit particularly hard. It is estimated that in 2024 around 84% of the crude oil and condensate transiting the strait was destined for Asian markets, and nearly 83% of the LNG also went to that region.
Emerging economies that are highly dependent on LNG, such as Bangladesh, India, or PakistanThey are especially vulnerable. In 2025, almost two-thirds of their liquefied natural gas imports crossed the Strait of Hormuz. In countries like Bangladesh and Pakistan, gas accounts for around 50% and 25% of electricity generation respectively, so a sustained disruption could lead to power outages, massive energy price increases, and social unrest.
The impact would not be limited to the energy sector. nitrogen fertilizersCountries whose production in the Gulf relies heavily on natural gas would see their supply chains strained. This would increase the cost of agricultural inputs and add pressure to food prices, with the potential to trigger political instability in countries heavily dependent on imports.
Even in the case of a partial disruption, when shipping companies decide to divert vessels or when insurers withdraw standard coverage and apply war surcharges, the effects are noticeable: reduced fleet availability, longer routes via the Cape of Good Hope, freight surcharges and a general increase in volatility in futures markets.
The recent crisis: military escalation and market reaction
In the latest major escalation, triggered at the end of February 2026 following the US and Israeli military operations Epic Fury and Roaring Lion against strategic Iranian targets, the Strait of Hormuz returned to the epicenter of global alarmIranian retaliation included attacks on facilities and targets in Qatar, the UAE, Kuwait, Bahrain, and Saudi Arabia.
Between March 1 and 2, 2026, at least Three commercial vessels suffered damage in the strait due to projectile impacts or suspected explosions, according to the UK Maritime Operations Centre (UKMTO). By March 1, oil flows through the area had plummeted 86% compared to the year's average, with more than 700 tankers queuing.
Iranian forces went so far as to declare the strait "closed," warning that they would not allow passage to ships linked to the United States or Israel and claiming to have the “complete control” of the corridorAlthough they later clarified that it was not a general official closure, the perception of risk was already enough to drastically alter commercial operations.
The major shipping companies reacted quickly. Companies like Maersk, Hapag-Lloyd or MSC They announced the temporary suspension of transits through the Strait of Hormuz, ordered their ships to proceed to safe areas, and began rerouting ships via the Cape of Good Hope. At the same time, marine insurers reviewed or withdrew standard coverage for the area, raising premiums to wartime risk levels.
The result was an immediate jump in the markets: the price of Brent crude surged by around 13%. In the first sessions on March 2, natural gas prices in Europe rose by around 24%. Although some of that increase was due to initial nervousness, the lack of a clear prospect for easing restrictions kept prices at high levels.
Even the coordinated announcement by several members of OPEC+ — including Saudi Arabia, Russia, Iraq, the UAE, Kuwait, Kazakhstan, Algeria, and Oman — offering increase production The measures taken to stabilize the market weren't enough to calm investors. The reason is simple: more crude oil can be put on the market, but if ships can't leave normally through the Strait of Hormuz, much of that oil will remain trapped in the region.
China's role and the possibilities for de-escalation
In this tense situation, China emerges as a decisive playerNot only is it the world's largest importer of crude oil and one of the biggest buyers of Iranian oil, but it has also been strengthening its role as a mediator in Middle Eastern conflicts for years. A prolonged closure of the strait directly contradicts its interests as a major energy and commercial power.
Hence, Chinese diplomacy has repeatedly urged all parties to to reduce tension, ensure navigational safety and avoid a greater impact on the global economyMeanwhile, official media in Beijing have criticized the US military involvement, saying it further complicates and destabilizes the region.
The most cautious analyses consider two main scenarios. In the first, a relatively rapid diplomatic de-escalation—within a matter of weeks—would allow to gradually normalize trafficto reduce risk premiums and bring energy prices back to more manageable levels. The damage would be significant, but limited in time.
In the second scenario, if the instability lasts from one to six months or more, the consequences could be much more profound: high oil and gas prices over a prolonged period, widespread inflation in numerous industrial sectors, particularly strong pressure on developing economies dependent on energy imports, and social tensions linked to the cost of living.
Meanwhile, Iran will continue to view control of the strait as a powerful, albeit dangerous, asset in its regional strategy, while the United States and its allies will continue to justify their naval presence in the name of freedom of navigation. The balance is fragile, and any miscalculation could lead to further disruption of the global energy system.
The Strait of Hormuz, in short, condenses in a few kilometers everything that makes contemporary geopolitics so complex: a small geographical point, a gigantic concentration of energy resources, extreme traffic density, and a constant intersection of interests between regional and global powersWhatever happens in its waters, however technical or distant it may seem, will continue to have a silent but direct influence on fuel prices, electricity bills, and the economic stability of countries on every continent.
