Although they rarely make headlines, volcanic processes do not rest and, under Naples, Campi Flegrei is back on the radar by the changes detected by observatories. Understanding these signals isn't just science: it's key to reducing risks when nature takes a turn.
The scale of a supervolcano complicates any forecast: large-scale eruptions They can alter climate, ecosystems, and human activity thousands of miles away. Therefore, every new piece of information is analyzed with a magnifying glass, without alarmism but without downplaying what matters.
Technical notice: worrying signs in Campi Flegrei
Campi Flegrei is a large volcanic area In Campania, near Naples, with calderas like Solfatara and a landscape shaped by collapses and ancient eruptions. Its geology offers clues about past events and how the system may behave.
The area is known for its intense hydrothermal activity: fumaroles, solfataras and hot springs that release heat and gases from the subsoil. In addition to its scientific interest, this environment has been a natural laboratory for measuring and understanding volcanic hazards.
A recent investigation, signed by teams from the CNR-IGG and the INGV together with the company Steam srl and published in the journal Solid Earth, concludes that the direct driver of the current bradyseismic crisis is the intermediate aquifer (2,7–4,0 km), which is believed to be heating and pressurizing. Evidence comes from detailed analysis of Solfatara gases using specific geothermometers and geobarometers developed over decades of sampling.
In terms of danger, the authors point out that, with this overpressured aquifer, there could be phreatic or hydrothermal explosions capable of fragmenting the covering rocks and generating rapid flows of mud and debris that would follow the depressions in the terrain toward the coast. These types of events, they emphasize, do not require magma to reach the surface.
The work also proposes ways to improve surveillance and mitigate risks: monitoring in real time the temperature and pressure of the aquifer with geobarometers/gas thermometers and assess geothermal relief wells to reach that level to reduce pressure. A complex option, yes, but with potential returns—geothermal energy and the recovery of raw materials like lithium—and more viable today than in the 70s and 80s, when Agip-Enel already tested the field's potential.
Latest data: swarms and ground deformation
The Vesuvian Observatory has reported a seismic swarm of 131 tremors between August 31 and September 1, with a maximum magnitude of 4,0. This type of episode coincides with phases of system instability.
After that sequence, the geodetic instrumentation detected subsidence of up to 2,5 cm At the Pozzuoli Aeronautical Academy, the movement was 2,9 cm horizontally to the southwest, and at Monte Olibano, a 1,1 cm lateral movement accompanied by a 1 cm downward movement. This is an unusual rate of deformation due to its rapidity.
The observatory has pointed out that the intensity of the displacement is related to the unprecedented magnitude 4,0 recorded in that sector, something not observed until now in the most active area of ​​the field.
In parallel, the global counts of the last 24 hours include Campi Flegrei eight microearthquakes with magnitudes between 0,1 and 1,3, data that fit into a pattern of persistent microseismicity during the current crisis.
It is worth remembering that bradysism can alternate periods of ground elevation and descent, depending on how fluids, fractures, and internal pressure interact; for now, There is no unequivocal sign of an imminent eruption, but the priority remains to maintain preparedness and reinforced surveillance in the populated area.
The picture drawn by recent records—pressure in the hydrothermal system, swarms, rapid deformation, and microseismicity—confirms that Campi Flegrei requires constant attention: Models are improving, instruments are being refined, and administrations have more options to reduce impact if the activity were to take a further step.